Republicans’ longstanding legislative majority would be reduced under most maps proposed to the Wisconsin Supreme Court on Friday, two weeks after the current boundaries were struck down as unconstitutional.
But Democratic legislative majorities aren’t very likely under any of the submitted map proposals, one of which the court will likely select for use in the 2024 elections. Most of the proposals would keep Republicans in charge of the Legislature, though some would give Democrats a possible path to legislative control if they secure a higher statewide vote.
The series of seven proposals arose out of a lawsuit brought by liberal firm Law Forward against the Wisconsin Elections Commission and Republican legislative leaders. In addition to Law Forward and the Republican leaders, additional maps were submitted by several parties that intervened in the case including Democratic Gov. Tony Evers, the conservative Wisconsin Institute for Law and Liberty, Democratic lawmakers, intervenors who joined the plaintiffs’ cause and a redistricting consultant.
In its 4-3 ruling, the court’s liberal majority said the current Republican maps are unconstitutional because a large number of districts contain territory that is not contiguous. But in ordering new maps, the court added another requirement: that any new maps also not favor one party over another.
That amounted to a major victory for Democrats, because experts say the current legislative maps have a baked-in Republican advantage. In submitting their maps Friday, Republican legislative leaders urged the court to select a map “that does nothing more than fix the contiguity issue,” instead of focusing on selecting maps that are also politically neutral.
Each party submitted voluminous briefs and appendices late Friday, the contours of which will become evident as teams of experts comb through them. While hewing to the court’s requirement that the maps contain contiguous districts, each also noted how its map might affect the legislative makeup in future elections given the results from past ones.
Here’s a first look at the competing plans.
The plaintiffs
The Democratic plaintiffs who brought the case proposed maps that would give Republicans an advantage in 52% of legislative seats — a steep reduction from the GOP’s current standing, their lawyers said. The maps would give Republicans about 52 seats in the 99-member Assembly, down from 64, and 17 in the 33-member Senate, down from a 22-seat supermajority.
The plaintiffs said they abided by the court’s requirements and refuted the argument that Wisconsin’s political geography all but ensures a Republican legislative majority. Republicans have long said they’re nearly certain to hold the majority under neutral maps because Democrats are clustered in the state’s biggest cities but Republicans are spread more evenly throughout the state.
The state’s political geography “cannot justify a skewed remedial map,” they said.
Gov. Evers
Evers’ proposed maps could potentially led to Democrats gaining a legislative majority. If Democratic candidates under his proposed maps perform as well as he did in the 2022 election, Democrats would have a 52-47 Assembly majority and an 18-15 Senate majority.
But if they perform under Evers’ proposed maps as well as former Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Mandela Barnes did that year, Republicans would have a 51-48 Assembly majority and 17-16 Senate majority.
“We’re a purple state, and our maps should reflect that basic fact,” Evers said in a statement. “I’ve always promised I’d fight for fair maps — not maps that favor one political party or another — and that’s a promise I’m proud to keep with the maps I’m submitting today.”
Legislature
The Republican-controlled Legislature proposed a set of legislative maps that ensure districts are contiguous districts but don’t abide by the court’s preference for them to be neutral.
They called fixing the noncontiguous districts “the only conceivable remedy within the Court’s ‘judicial power.’”
Attorneys for GOP legislators added that redrawing every state district would harm voters and elected officials, many of whom would be drawn into new legislative seats.
The maps they proposed would give Republicans 16 likely Senate seats, 51 likely Assembly seats, eight competitive districts in the Senate and 16 in the Assembly — similar to the current maps.
The disagreement between Republican legislators and the Wisconsin Supreme Court sets up what is likely to become an appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court over the December decision.
Republican legislators say liberal Justice Janet Protasiewicz should have recused herself from the case because she received funds from Democrats and called the current maps “rigged” while she was a candidate for the court. Republicans also allege the decision violated the 14th Amendment’s due process guarantee, depriving “the parties of a full and fair opportunity to litigate this case.”
WILL
An alternative Republican set of maps would likely reduce Assembly Republicans’ majority from 64 to 56 and the GOP Senate majority from 22 to 20, attorneys for WILL say.
But the conservative firm representing the GOP proponents of those maps called on the high court to choose its maps only if it rejects the Legislature’s maps “or any other similar remedy that does nothing more than fix the contiguity violation this Court has identified.”
Republicans would still have strong majorities under the WILL maps, which the group attributes to their advantage given Wisconsin’s political geography.
Plaintiff intervenors
Another proposal offered by intervenors acting on behalf of the liberal plaintiffs would likely give legislative control to the party that wins the most statewide voters, their lawyers say.
The maps would include 30 legislative districts with competitive races, court files state, with the victor between a Democratic and Republican candidate likely winning by no more than 6%.
Democratic senators
Maps submitted by Democratic senators would likely give Republicans 54 Assembly seats and 12 Senate seats f they get a 50% statewide vote, their lawyers said.
Under those maps, Republicans would have to win 47.8% of the statewide vote for an Assembly majority and 48.9% of the statewide vote for a Senate majority.
The maps would include 30 legislative districts with competitive races, court files state, with the victor between a Democratic and Republican candidate likely winning by no more than 10%.
Redistricting consultant
Additionally, redistricting consultant Matthew Petering asked the court to submit a map that he said very slightly favors Republicans, but would likely give legislative control to the party that wins a higher statewide vote share.
Under that set of maps, there would be 29 Assembly districts and 10 Senate districts that put the winning candidate within 10% of the losing candidate.
Next steps
The court will now have two court-hired redistricting consultants — University of California, Irvine political science professor Bernard Grofman and Carnegie Mellon University postdoctoral fellow Jonathan Cervas — evaluate the maps by Feb. 1. The court would then choose maps unless the Legislature first proposes new maps that Evers signs into law. Legislative leaders haven’t made clear that they’ll try to implement new maps through the Legislature.
Wisconsin Elections Commission staff have called for the new maps to be submitted by mid-March to be ready for the August primary.
Candidates will also need to check which district the new maps place them in, and the area they’ll be running to represent, as the first day to circulate nomination papers for the November election is April 15. Nomination papers are due by June 1, and the partisan primary is scheduled for Aug. 13.
Each party submitted voluminous briefs and appendices late Friday, the contours of which will become evident as teams of experts comb through them.